When Oat Supply Gets Tight, Who You Call Matters

Written By Robert Rosmis

If you're buying oats for your food manufacturing business, you've probably noticed the market's been unpredictable lately. Prices swing wildly. Lead times stretch. And finding consistent quality? That's become harder than it should be.

Here's what's actually happening in the oat market right now—and why it matters to your business.

 

The Oat Supply Situation

Canadian oat stocks are sitting at 350,000 tonnes. That's barely above the 2021-22 level that sent prices past $11 per bushel. US stocks are at record lows.

Farmers increased acreage about 30%, which sounds good until you realize total supply is still below the five-year average. There's no buffer. When the next weather event or trade hiccup happens, there's nothing to absorb the shock.

Meanwhile, demand keeps climbing:

  • Oat milk sales heading toward $7.15 billion by 2035

  • Oat flour growing 9.48% annually (gluten-free and clean-label driving this)

  • Overall oat market jumping from $4.23 billion to $5.8 billion by 2030

Bottom line: More people want oats. Fewer oats are available. You know how this story ends.

 

Why Supply Keeps Breaking Down

Weather is unpredictable. Drought in 2021 crushed harvests. Heavy moisture in 2024 delayed planting, pushing crops into summer heat stress. Late-planted oats typically yield less.

Farmers follow the money. When oat prices drop, they plant corn or soybeans instead. When oat prices spike, everyone plants oats and we get oversupply the next year. It's a cycle that makes planning nearly impossible.

Trade gets complicated. The US depends on Canadian oats. Tariff issues in 2025 aren't helping an already stressed supply chain.

Infrastructure doesn't prioritize oats. Most grain elevators focus on corn, soybeans, and wheat. Oats get treated like an afterthought, creating shipping bottlenecks.

 

What This Actually Costs You

Sure, higher prices hurt. But the real damage comes from:

  • Production delays because your supplier can't ship on time

  • Inconsistent quality when you're buying from whoever has stock that week

  • Reformulation headaches when you can't get the specs you need

  • Lost customers when you can't fulfill orders

Look at what happened to Oatly during the last shortage. They had massive demand but couldn't get enough oats. Prices went up. Production got cut. Customers went elsewhere.

Smaller brands had it worse. Without contracts in place, they paid whatever the spot market demanded or scrambled to find overseas suppliers—only to discover those supplies were hit by the same problems.

One consultant summed it up: "Brands relying on co-packers for raw materials faced a frustrating battle when demand spiked but supplies couldn't keep up."

 

Would you like our most recent Spec Sheets on our Oats? Complete the quick form below.

 

Why Highland Milling Works Differently

Highland isn't a massive conglomerate shuffling commodities. It's a regional mill in Southeast Idaho that actually knows the farmers growing their oats. When you call, you talk to people who can make decisions and solve problems—not a call center reading from a script. Here’ what that means for your business:

Real Relationships With Growers

Highland sources oats from Southeast Idaho and surrounding areas. These are farmers they've worked with for years, not spot-market purchases from whoever's cheapest that week.

What you get:

  • Oats show up when they're supposed to

  • You know exactly where they came from

  • Quality stays consistent because Highland knows every grower

  • Shorter shipping distances = lower costs and faster delivery

Quality You Can Count On

Highland is SQF certified with HACCP controls. Every batch gets tested:

  • Moisture content stays at 10-12%

  • Particle sizing stays consistent

  • Allergen protocols are followed

  • Regular audits verify everything

When supply gets tight, some suppliers cut corners. Highland doesn't. Your specs are your specs.

The Right Product for Your Application

  • Old Fashioned Rolled Oats – Granola, muesli, bars, clusters

  • Steel-Cut Oats – Premium cereals, texture applications

  • Quick Oats – Fast-cooking products, convenience foods

  • Oat Flour – Oat milk, baked goods, extruded cereals

  • Oat Groats – Pet food, further processing

Packaging: 25lb bags, 50lb bags, 1800lb super sacks, or bulk. Whatever works for your operation.

Small Enough to Care, Big Enough to Deliver

Highland is part of the Cerco Group, which has been in the grain business since 1917. That gives you over 100 years of milling expertise and supply chain knowledge.

But Highland operates at a scale where every customer matters. You're not order #47,293 in a system. You're a partner they work with directly.

 

What You Should Do

Oat supplies aren't getting better anytime soon. Industry experts expect tight markets through 2025-26. Weather and trade policy will keep adding uncertainty.

Smart moves right now:

Establish backup suppliers. Don't wait for a crisis. One industry expert put it simply: "It's easier to pick up the phone from a supplier you already work with than to cold call during a shortage."

Work with domestic suppliers. Southeast Idaho oats eliminate tariff risk and reduce shipping complications.

Pick suppliers who control their supply chain. From grower relationships through milling and logistics. Middlemen add risk.

Ask where oats actually come from. Traceability matters when you can't afford quality surprises.

 

Here's the Reality

The oat market is growing because consumers want healthier, plant-based options. That's great for business—if you can actually get oats when you need them.

Highland Milling was built for moments like this. While big suppliers are juggling global commodity flows, Highland focuses on one thing: getting quality oats from Idaho farmers to food manufacturers who need them.

Whether you're making granola for retail or manufacturing pet food for national distribution, your oat supplier should make your job easier, not harder.

Highland picks up the phone. They know their growers. They deliver on schedule. And they're set up to handle orders of all sizes—from a few pallets to truckloads.

Let's talk about your oat needs.

Call 360-949-1750 and talk to someone who can actually help. Or visit highlandmilling.com/premium-oats

No automated systems. No runaround. Just straightforward answers about getting the oats you need, when you need them.

Sources & Industry Data

Market Data & Projections:

  • Mordor Intelligence, "Oats Market Size, Growth Trends & Global Industry Analysis | 2030" (July 2025)

  • Future Market Insights, "Oat Milk Market Size, Trends, Demand & Forecast 2025 to 2035" (July 2025)

  • Future Market Insights, "Oats Market Size, Demand & Industry Outlook 2025 to 2035" (August 2025)

Supply & Stock Data:

  • DTN Progressive Farmer, "North American Oat Ending Stocks Flirting with Record Low Levels" (May 2025)

  • Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), Official Supply Projections (2025)

  • World Grain, "Oats under pressure from tariffs, supply issues" (March 2025)

Industry Analysis:

  • Food Business News, "Global oats market players shifting" (March 2024)

  • Baking Business, "Low supplies, high demand characterize oats market" (March 2024)

  • Randy Strychar, Oatinformation.com, North American Millers' Association (NAMA) Spring Conference (March 2025)

Supply Chain Impact:

  • Supply Chain Dive, "Strained oat supply pushes Oatly to raise prices, expand sourcing" (March 2022)

  • Specialty Food Association, "Specialty Food Makers Persevere Despite Grain, Oat Shortages" (2022)

  • Offrange/Ambrook, "Farmers Aren't Keeping Up With Oat Milk Demand" (June 2024)

Robert Rosmis